Magic Numbers: Expanding the Map

The numbers coming in today are looking good!

Ok - a little refresher...there are 538 electoral votes available -- half of which would be 269 -- so, THE magic number is 270. Obama and the DNC are trying to run a Dean-style, 50-state strategy with emphasis on huge voter registration drives (particularly the African American -AA- and youth votes - YV).

Some stats from Democrats.org:
PA -- has 200,00 unregistered AA and 250,000 YV will turn 18 before November
MI -- has 300,000 unregistered AA
GA -- has over 600,000 unregistered AA

The NAACP's Civic Engagement Department has implemented a 2008 Voter Empowerment Program with a goal of increasing AA turn out by 5% (which I think is low). Their "Arrive with Five" initiative could really bring out the AA vote which typically trends Democratic. (naacp.org)

In many states the ratio of Dems to Reps are 2 to 1. If we can turn out bigger numbers and add on some Reagan Democrats and Independents (which voted near the 20% mark for Dems in the primaries in IN, NC and IA), we're in good shape.

Now for the polls...as of today* (6.17.08)
Obama leads in polled adults by 48-42 and with registered voters by 49-45. The general rule (538.com) is that "5 is the most points a great ground game can make up" in an election cycle. With the 38 states and DC outside that 5-point range, the numbers are Obama 247; McCain 157. Not bad.

And, Obama currently leads in NH, MI, OH, VA, MO and NM by under the 5% margin (although Public Policy Polling has O leading in Ohio by a whopping 11 pts today!).
Take into account that these polls do not include voters that do not have a land line (most of the YV) and Rep cross-overs (legit and Limbaugh-led) and the fact that Dem registered voters outnumber Reps - and there are quite a few reasons to be hopeful.

Some have criticized Sen. Obama for stating that he can win without Ohio and Florida. In fact, he has been saying this (or something similar) since before the primaries started. Why not? It is completely feasible -- and here's how.

Nate and Sean at 538 threw out some hypothetical game plans for Obama to reach the magic number.
Plan A - keep all the states Kerry won & add Ohio.
Plan B - win Iowa and 2/3 of the Southwest swing states.
Plan C - win Kerry states, add Iowa and Virginia.

USAToday.com has a map designating the trends from the last 4 election cycles. On this map, if Obama keeps all the Dem states, he is at 244 electoral votes. Adding on Iowa, Georgia and Colorado (all possible) and he wins. If he wins Ohio and New Mexico (where he is ahead) and flips Virginia (?) - he wins. Other states in play this season could be Montana, Alaska and North Dakota - possible, but not probable.

The map is changing. Do not believe the tired, outdated you must win Ohio/Florida theory. They still are large factors, but not the only ones.

Confused yet? Surprisingly, I'm not. Hey, wait a minute...did I just do math? Not really. Others did it for me, but this kind of math I like!

My co-worker (hey Can Can!) today dubbed me a "Plouffette". I threatened to hang a dry erase board at our desk ala Russert until November.
:)


*All polling info unless otherwise indicated taken from fivethirtyeight.com
best site ever!