Summer Sandals

Better known as flip-flops. (I bet you thought this was really going to be about shoes, right? Sorry.)

On the other kind of flip flop, Senator McCain is quickly becoming a pro. Once lauded as a "Maverick" (a nickname he still clings to and is using as a campaign positive), he seems to have forgotten what that word means -- coincidentally at the same time he captured (a little tasteless, but correct) the GOP nomination. Hmm...

Maverick: an unbranded calf; a lone dissenter; a non-conformist. (dictionary.com)

Well, he is definitley marked with a big GOP on his ass now. I've seen no dissention from W's policies of late and he is conforming so much that even he can't keep his facts straight.

In "Loving John McCain", an article by Eric Alterman and George Zornick of The Nation, they cite statistics that have McCain voting with Pres. Bush 95% of the time in 2007 and so far 100% in 2008. (Although that isn't saying much since he hasn't voted since April.) In fact, his tax cuts are even more aggressive than W's with "39.5% of benefits going to the top 1% and 4.1 trillion in lost revenue over 10 years." Wow.

Alterman and Zornick also discuss at length the media bias for McCain. The MSM is still so enthralled with the "maverick" persona and his war hero status that they are letting him slide. I guess it doesn't hurt that most of the major networks and newspapers are owned by conservative Republicans (ie. Murdoch).

Just for fun, here is my list of his top ten recent flip flops*:
10. No negative attack ads.
9. Ethanol
8. The Estate Tax
7. Immigration Reform
6. Tax cuts for the wealthy
5. Windfall profits tax on oil companies
4. Off-shore drilling
3. FISA - illegal wiretapping immunity
2. Torture
1. Abortion

Yes, my friends, not only should his "Maverick" status be stripped, but his true values and character should be exposed by the media. Don't hold your breath.


*www.bi30.org/wordpress/flipflopper.htm

**UPDATE: The Carpetbagger Report came out with a list of McCain's policy reversals. 61!!! and counting...
Here's a link to the article:

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/16124.html#more-16124

Shortsighted

This is the best word I've heard to accurately describe the governing policies of the GOP -- and the best current example is Pres. Bush and Sen. McCain's proposal for off-shore oil drilling.

Andrew Leonard explores this in his "How the World Works" series for Salon.com. Here are some excerpts that prove this point:

"But maybe the most fascinating aspect to the debate about offshore drilling -- to this profound choice between two worldviews, two ways of being on the planet -- is the harsh light it sheds on the value systems at the heart of how political identity is traditionally seen in the United States.

Republicans have made hay for decades by portraying Democrats as spendthrift, reckless liberals. Their side is supposedly "conservative" -- sober-minded, prudent, levelheaded -- while their opponents are "radical" -- dangerous, risky, foolish.

But what is the truly "conservative" position on offshore drilling, or energy policy in general? Recklessly exhausting all available resources now, and letting the future take care of itself -- or conserving those resources, investing carefully for the future, and thinking about the long term? Where does prudence reside -- in attempting to shave a few pennies off of gas prices now, or on planning on how to cope with high gas prices for the foreseeable future?"

First of all, we couldn't even get a rig up and running (or drilling) for at least 5 years and the effect on gas prices would be minimal. If this is a typical pander - who is it aimed at? Oh yeah, oil companies -- those fat cats that fund your campaigns.

Leonard concludes with this:

"As shareholders in this planet, what do we want? A good quarter now, at the risk of financial disaster next year? Or a long-term ecologically healthy path to sustained prosperity? That's what the debate over offshore drilling is really about."

Oh, and leave the polar bears alone.

Presidential quotes

"Whatever America hopes to bring to pass in the world must first come to pass in the heart of America."
~Pres. Dwight D. Eisenhower

"No man can take part in the torture of a human being without having his own moral nature permanently lowered."*

"No man is justified in doing evil on the ground of expedience."*

"No man is above the law, and no man is below it."*
~Pres. Theodore Roosevelt*

Good TV

Last night two of my favorite tv personalities were on the same show...watch:

http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/videos.jhtml?videoId=174545

Bump

More good news...

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute* came out with some more interesting numbers today. The poll shows Barack Obama leading in three key swing states (even leading in Florida for the first time). No one since 1960 has won the election without at least two of these states - although I think there are other viable routes.

Pennsylvania: 52 - 40 (12 pts)
Ohio: 48 - 42 (6 pts)
Florida: 47 - 43 (4 pts)

Of course this is only one poll - and I'm usually wary of poll numbers -- however, it does factor in over 15,000 responses and adds some crucial voter insights. It shows that Obama is leading 10 - 23% among women and is has a double-digit lead with the youth vote.

This is key. Peter A Brown, the Assistant Director at the Institute revealed these numbers: of people who voted for Bush, 13% in Ohio and Florida and 19% in PA are now supporting Obama. :)

I know I went on at length in my previous post about how he doesn't necessarily need these states...but the more the merrier, I say.

*www.quinnipiac.edu

cold sore!

How big is it, you ask?

It has a pulse.

Magic Numbers: Expanding the Map

The numbers coming in today are looking good!

Ok - a little refresher...there are 538 electoral votes available -- half of which would be 269 -- so, THE magic number is 270. Obama and the DNC are trying to run a Dean-style, 50-state strategy with emphasis on huge voter registration drives (particularly the African American -AA- and youth votes - YV).

Some stats from Democrats.org:
PA -- has 200,00 unregistered AA and 250,000 YV will turn 18 before November
MI -- has 300,000 unregistered AA
GA -- has over 600,000 unregistered AA

The NAACP's Civic Engagement Department has implemented a 2008 Voter Empowerment Program with a goal of increasing AA turn out by 5% (which I think is low). Their "Arrive with Five" initiative could really bring out the AA vote which typically trends Democratic. (naacp.org)

In many states the ratio of Dems to Reps are 2 to 1. If we can turn out bigger numbers and add on some Reagan Democrats and Independents (which voted near the 20% mark for Dems in the primaries in IN, NC and IA), we're in good shape.

Now for the polls...as of today* (6.17.08)
Obama leads in polled adults by 48-42 and with registered voters by 49-45. The general rule (538.com) is that "5 is the most points a great ground game can make up" in an election cycle. With the 38 states and DC outside that 5-point range, the numbers are Obama 247; McCain 157. Not bad.

And, Obama currently leads in NH, MI, OH, VA, MO and NM by under the 5% margin (although Public Policy Polling has O leading in Ohio by a whopping 11 pts today!).
Take into account that these polls do not include voters that do not have a land line (most of the YV) and Rep cross-overs (legit and Limbaugh-led) and the fact that Dem registered voters outnumber Reps - and there are quite a few reasons to be hopeful.

Some have criticized Sen. Obama for stating that he can win without Ohio and Florida. In fact, he has been saying this (or something similar) since before the primaries started. Why not? It is completely feasible -- and here's how.

Nate and Sean at 538 threw out some hypothetical game plans for Obama to reach the magic number.
Plan A - keep all the states Kerry won & add Ohio.
Plan B - win Iowa and 2/3 of the Southwest swing states.
Plan C - win Kerry states, add Iowa and Virginia.

USAToday.com has a map designating the trends from the last 4 election cycles. On this map, if Obama keeps all the Dem states, he is at 244 electoral votes. Adding on Iowa, Georgia and Colorado (all possible) and he wins. If he wins Ohio and New Mexico (where he is ahead) and flips Virginia (?) - he wins. Other states in play this season could be Montana, Alaska and North Dakota - possible, but not probable.

The map is changing. Do not believe the tired, outdated you must win Ohio/Florida theory. They still are large factors, but not the only ones.

Confused yet? Surprisingly, I'm not. Hey, wait a minute...did I just do math? Not really. Others did it for me, but this kind of math I like!

My co-worker (hey Can Can!) today dubbed me a "Plouffette". I threatened to hang a dry erase board at our desk ala Russert until November.
:)


*All polling info unless otherwise indicated taken from fivethirtyeight.com
best site ever!

R.I.P.

Today is truly a sad day.

Tim Russert, NBC's longest-serving moderator on "Meet the Press" and beloved political journalist, died of a heart attack this afternoon. He was at work.

MTP is the "longest-running program in the history of television"(msnbc.com) and mandatory Sunday morning fodder for political junkies like me. I'd just read what was to be his last interview about Obama's new anti-smear campaign (see previous post) and how the internet is going to effect this election.

So sad. Watching MSNBC's primary coverage this spring, you could see his face light up when talking tactics. He loved the game of politics and was so excited for this upcoming general election.

Sundays will never be the same.

Bagel and a Smear?

Counterpunch.

The Obama campaign has put up a new web page dedicated solely to debunking smears from the GOP. Think of it as a Snopes for the election.

For any new rumors or "facts" that you hear (especially if they come from FOX or any news outlet owned by Rupert Murdoch) - please go to this site:

http://fightthesmears.com

Tell all of your friends. There will be no swiftboating here.

cool little video

Click here for a video commentary on our global sitch:
http://www.endofworld.net

Thanks Drew!

Blog Shout Out

Check out this blog:

http://danielsbigtrip.blogspot.com

Daniel McConnell is a 30 year old vet from Tennessee who lost his arm in Afghanistan and is driving across the country in his old truck (the Pinto Bean) with his dog Rocky (or RTD - Rock the Destroyer).

It should prove interesting to see what he has to say about the country he gave years to protect. Must read: the prologue.

(Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan - The Dish on The Atlantic.com)

First Move

According to the Associated Press, Obama told the DNC yesterday to not accept any money from Political Action Committees or federal lobbyists.

It's a start...

gloat quote

from poster on daily kos website:

"im in ur base killin ur d00dz"

- referring to Barack giving his nomination speech at the site of the GOP convention.

finally...

The primary contests are over. And. He. Won.

It is truly poetic justice that on August 28th, when Barack will give his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver (yes, I'll be there - in Denver, somewhere with a cocktail, an Obama shirt and a big smile) - it will be 45 years to the day that MLK gave his infamous "I Have a Dream" speech.

See, dreams do come true. Sometimes they just take a while.